Day of reckoning - The Oscars 2013

It's Oscar time and these are some of the reasons why we love or hate to sit through the speeches.

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LEIGH Paatsch rates the contenders for this year's Oscars and predicts who will take home Hollywood's top prize.

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Denzel Washington, Flight
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Rehearse that fake smile: Just the nomination is enough for Phoenix. Don't forget it was only five years ago he'd retired to perpetrate that crummy "I wanna be a rapper'' hoax. First-time nominee Jackman has no chance, given he is representing a musical. Though he was the heart and soul of Les Mis, when it comes to the big acting categories, warblers ain't winners.

Deserves to win, but won't: Any other (Day-Lewis-free) year, Cooper would be the clear fave for his brilliant breakthrough display in Silver Linings. At least this might finally stop people immediately thinking of him as "that good-looking dude from The Hangover''. The ultra-consistent Washington is equally unlucky. His unfailingly authentic portrayal of functional alcoholism in Flight is far superior to his Oscar-winning turn in Training Day.

And the winner is ... Daniel Day-Lewis. Yet again, DDL proves why he is the best big-ticket actor in the business with Lincoln. Playing one of America's most iconic figures, Lewis slipped right inside the imposing persona of Honest Abe, and never once came out for a single, showy, "look at me!'' moment. A history-making third Best Actor win for a true master of his craft awaits.

Daniel Day-Lewis's staggering portrayal of Abraham Lincoln proves why the master of his craft is the best in the business. Source: Supplied

Best Supporting actor

Alan Arkin, Argo
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Hey, it's a night out, isn't it?This is the hottest Best Supporting Actor line-up in the Academy's history, with every nominee a past Oscar winner. Arkin and Hoffman are arguably the outsiders in a very even field. Arkin went MIA for long periods in Argo, and hasn't drawn much heat across the whole of the awards season. Ditto Hoffman, whose enigmatic performance is either too mannered or too nuanced for most voters.

Deserves to win, but won't: Waltz will go mighty close for yet another movie-stealing display as the garrulous bounty hunter in Django Unchained. A recent win in this category in another Tarantino film (Inglourious Basterds) will count against him, however. Silver Linings marked the first occasion De Niro has been great in a movie in years. A win here just might remind Bob he shouldn't be ending a once-glorious career as a hack for hire.

And the winner is ... Tommy Lee Jones. If you got yourself noticed in a movie featuring a performance as perfect as that of Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln, you must have been pretty darn great yourself. That should be enough to have craggy-headed ol' Tommy looking the goods in the tightest race of the night. Past winner here for The Fugitive in 1993.

Christoph Waltz as Schultz and Jamie Foxx as Django in Django Unchained. Source: Supplied

Best Actress

Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

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Tell the seat-warmer to go home early: A second nomination for Watts (after 2003's 21 Grams) and a second likely loss. Never mind. Her day at the podium will surely come. You just don't win these days for disaster movies. Simple as that. Eighty-five-year-old French veteran Riva racks up another birthday on Oscar night. Surprised many by scoring at the BAFTAs, but foreign-language nominees are always up against it on US turf.

Deserves to win, but won't: Chastain was the clear front-runner at the start of awards season, but has lost support with each passing week. There was something a bit cool and clinical about her ZD30 role that just hasn't resonated with voters. Youngest-ever nominee Wallis was extraordinary in Beasts. Arguably the strongest performance here, but I suspect most won't see past her tender age to give her the backing needed. A shame.

And the winner is ... Jennifer Lawrence. As a recent past nominee for the first featured performance of her career (2010's Winter's Bone), the timing could not be better for a rapidly rising star like Lawrence. Her work in Silver Linings was flawless, controlling the film's sudden mood swings with both unrelenting poise and intensity. Won't be the last time she scores this statuette before her time is up.

Bradley Cooper has been nominated for an Oscar for his role as a mental patient trying to get his life back on track in Silver Linings Playbook. Aussie co-star Jacki Weaver also picked up a best supporting actress nod for her role as his supportive mum. Source: AP

 Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, The Master
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Sally Field, Lincoln

Don't spend too much on that outfit: Weaver is becoming a bit of a regular on the Hollywood trophy circuit, ain't she. Jacki was great(ish) in the semi-sunny Silver Linings, but if she's ever going to win an Oscar, it will be for darker fare. Field's effort as Abe's manic missus gets on some people's nerves. A shame, as she got the character absolutely right.

Deserves to win, but won't: Hunt's unwavering commitment to a demanding role was impressive. However, the subject matter of The Sessions is too racy for your typical Oscar-voting slowpoke. Adams's effort in The Master has been highly underrated, combining the sweet and the sinister to eerily unsettling effect. Has been thereabouts this awards season, but not getting much love.

And the winner is ... Anne Hathaway. The hottest favourite of the night, Hathaway has won every other key-indicator award in this category. The former Oscars co-host owned the entire first act of Les Mis, courtesy of a show-stopping, heart-melting rendition of I Dreamed a Dream. Wasn't just about the singing, though. A past nominee in this category (2008's Rachel Getting Married) who won't be losing this time.

Anne Hathaway has been nominated for best supporting actress for portraying Fantine, a struggling, sickly mother forced into prostitution in 1800s Paris in Les Miserables. Picture: AP/Universal Source: AP

Best Director

Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Michael Haneke, Amour
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Forget that speech you memorised: Any name listed above that doesn't end in Spielberg doesn't stand a chance. Not that any of them phoned in their work. Far from it. Lee's assured hand on Life of Pi saved the film from any sudden slip into novelty territory. Zeitlin's maverick vision for Beasts was undoubtedly the most original, but also the most misunderstood.

Deserves to win, but won't: Everyone's been saying it. And it bears repeating. All in caps, no less. WHERE THE HELL IS THE NOMINATION FOR BEN AFFLECK? The most inexplicable oversight in recent Oscars history will also become the most embarrassing when Argo takes out the big one. The age-old argument that the best film must surely be the work of the best director gets a whole new set of legs.

Benh Zeitlin's maverick vision for Beasts of the Southern Wild, starring Best Actress nominee Quvenzhane Wallis, was undoubtedly the most original, but also the most misunderstood. Source: Supplied

And the winner is ... Steven Spielberg. A tainted victory of sorts, even if it ain't Spielberg's fault that Academy voters folded like cheap lawn chairs on poor old Ben Affleck. Lincoln stands as a relatively restrained effort for Spielberg, who has often pushed too hard to get an emotional reaction. A towering actor and a tremendous script helped. A third win from a seven-nomination career.

Best Motion Picture

Argo
Amour
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

The honour's all yours, the spoils are all theirs: Another year, another two-horse race. The recent experiment of expanding the field beyond five nominees must be deemed a failure by now. This is not to denigrate any of the worthy titles listed here, all of which warranted recognition in what was a very strong year for mainstream cinema. Nevertheless, there will not be an upset in the biggest category of the evening.

The most inexplicable oversight in recent Oscars history will become the most embarrassing when Ben Affleck's Iran hostage drama Argo takes out Best Picture, despite the fact that Affleck has not been nominated for Best Director. Source: Supplied

Deserves to win, but won't: Every pundit has Lincoln inked as the only possible challenger to a very likely victor. Lofty subject matter and behind-the-scenes pedigree certainly fits the profile of a Best Picture winner. Zero Dark Thirty and Beasts of the Southern Wild are landmark films in their own right, but are fated to miss the boat through lack of box-office success.

And the winner is ... Argo. The best film of 2012? It's all in the eyes of the beholders. And when those beholders are the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, you can bet your bottom dollar Argo is their clear top pick. This exciting and entertaining thriller centered on the Iran hostage crisis of 1979 is a traditional crowd-pleaser with a distinctly modern edge. The right result? Absolutely.

BEST OF THE REST

Best Screenplay - Original

And the winner is ...  Django Unchained
Quentin Tarantino's latest rewrite of history is certainly the most original of the nominees. Only Mark Boal for ZD30 can beat him.

Best Screenplay - Adapted

And the winner is ...  Lincoln. 
Tony Kushner's script was one wordy, old-timey parchment, but it fits the bill perfectly. The story that had to be told came through loud and clear.                         

Best Cinematography

And the winner is ...  Life of Pi.
Sure, there were CGI effects all over the place. Nevertheless, Claudio Miranda's camerawork was artful, bewitching and groundbreaking all at once.

Best Animated Feature          

And the winner is ... Wreck-It Ralph. 
While not a year for top-end 'tooning by any means, Disney's video-game-inspired adventure was clearly the most innovative and entertaining.

Best Documentary Feature

And the winner is ...  Searching for Sugarman. 
Prize usually goes to harder-hitting fare. However, the intriguing tale of mysterious troubadour Sixto Rodriguez will be irresistible to voters.

...AND ALSO

Best Foreign Language Film: Amour (Austria)
Best Original Score: Mychael Danna Life of Pi
Best Original Song: Skyfall
Best Production Design: Anna Karenina
Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Les Miserables
Best Sound (Mixing & Editing): Les Miserables
Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Best Film Editing: Argo

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